If the Conservative Party of Canada wins the federal election later this month, I think we should be careful about interpreting that as meaning that Canadian voters are conservative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
I took some time to review the popular vote for every election since 1984. I picked 1984 as the starting year because it was the last time that the conservatives received a majority of the popular vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The \u201cleft of centre\u2019 includes Liberals, NDP, and Greens. The \u201cright of centre\u201d includes the current CPC, the PCs, and the Reform\/Alliance parties. I did not include regional parties (such as the Bloc) or parties that consistently get under 1% of the popular vote. The results account for between 83% and 98% of all votes cast in each election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What we see is that the \u201cleft of centre\u201d voters outnumber the \u201cright of centre\u201d voters every election since 1984. Even in the 2011 election, when Harper won the majority of seats, not only did Harper get under 40% of the popular vote, but the \u201cleft of centre\u201d voters outnumbered the \u201cright of centre\u201d voters by 35%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition to the \u201cleft of centre\u201d voters outnumbering the \u201cright of centre\u201d voters in each of the last 9 elections, the spread between the two groups of voters keeps getting wider. In fact, in the 2015 election, \u201cleft of centre\u201d voters were double that of the \u201cright of centre\u201d voters. And voter turnout was 70%, the highest since 1997.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Canadian voters are overwhelmingly left of centre. Conservative voters in Canada are in the minority. Conservative parties win federally not because Canadian voters vote for them, but because the \u201cleft of centre\u201d voters split their votes. And that\u2019s not the fault of voters; that\u2019s a side effect of the inadequate first-past-the-post electoral system we have now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We need electoral reform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n